第159期
【提问有奖】五大投资姿势同台PK,你Pick哪一种?

嘉宾 洒脱喜,Antonio Juliano,Mati Greenspan,Ryan Lackey,Kyle Samani

投资是人类社会的永恒话题。加密货币,因其价格的大幅波动,成为了众多投资者的首选:散户买卖加密货币,分析师提供投资方向。历经十余年的发展,加密货币投资的定义不再限于现货的买卖,更多的人开始寻找新的投资机会,因此涌现了一波Hodl党、DeFi用户、Staker以及风投(VC)机构。究竟哪一种投资形式更胜一筹呢?本期AMA请到了Hodl代…

已结束 参与人数:181

投资是人类社会的永恒话题。加密货币,因其价格的大幅波动,成为了众多投资者的首选:散户买卖加密货币,分析师提供投资方向。历经十余年的发展,加密货币投资的定义不再限于现货的买卖,更多的人开始寻找新的投资机会,因此涌现了一波Hodl党、DeFi用户、Staker以及风投(VC)机构。究竟哪一种投资形式更胜一筹呢?

本期AMA请到了Hodl代表洒脱喜、DeFi代表Antonio Juliano、分析师代表Mati Greenspan、Staking代表Ryan Lackey以及VC代表Kyle Samani和大家聊一聊投资这件事。


嘉宾简介:

 

洒脱喜:巴比特技术IP,爱生活爱比特币的洒脱喜。

 

Antonio Juliano:Antonio是dYdX的创始人以及CEO,dYdX是行业领先的去中心化保证金交易和衍生品交易所。

 

Mati Greenspan:Mati是Quantum Economics的创始人和CEO,他是关注最新市场趋势的交易机会的投资专家,从13岁就开始涉足金融市场。Mati有一种独特的方式来观察和解释金融市场动态,并帮助人们发现最佳的投资机会。他在加密货币领域的专长尤其突出,他是业内知名的顶级分析师之一,是彭博、CNBC、汤森路透、华尔街日报等财经新闻的常客。

 

Ryan Lackey:Ryan是Tezos基金会董事,同时是Tezos基金会执行委员会首席技术官。Ryan是计算机安全领域的连续创业者,是数字现金和密码学项目的早期参与者,早在20世纪90年代就成为了赛博朋克邮件列表的一员。2000年,作为伊拉克国防卫星承包商,他与人合作共同创建了世界上第一个离岸数据港HavenCo。他还做了一个可信服务器计算初创公司,这家公司后来被卖给了Cloudflare。

 

Kyle Samani:Kyle是Multicoin Capital的合伙人。毕业于纽约大学金融和管理学系,Kyle曾是一名工程师,目前负责技术论文产出和调查。他更倾向于面向合作伙伴,处理与创业者和其他投资者的关系。他的文章和系统级分析在加密货币生态中得到了广泛的认可。Kyle曾创立了一家IT公司Pristine,从VC手中募集了超过500万美元的资金,随后被Upskill收购。


AMA时间:


4月23日下午1点。


DeFi频繁被盗,普通用户还玩得起吗?

Staking真的能赚钱吗?

分析师到底靠不靠谱?

VC投资项目的背后有哪些秘密?

Hodl党有多寂寞?


关于投资的所有问题,你爱问啥就问啥!


提问有奖:


在AMA 中提问用户,即有资格参与风中锦鲤抽奖,康康你是不是那只幸运锦鲤,快来提问测欧气吧!


如何参与AMA?


在本主题帖下直接回帖提问即可参与,嘉宾将在活动开始后上线回答, AMA升级增加了主持人:牛头大哥提问环节,本期还新增了一位嘉宾主持:巴比特国际站站长Wendy,为大家从更多角度开拓出更新更好玩的话题,欢迎来问!


如何进群交流?


微信扫下方二维码添加链节点小助手燃燃(微信号:ljdwudi5520),回复“AMA”,小助手直接邀请进群,快进群跟小伙伴们一起交流探讨吧!

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  • YEP!!! 船员 发表于2020-04-24 10:23:16
    【课代表】本期AMA精华整理:
    https://www.8btc.com/article/586916


  • Wendy@8btc 版主 发表于2020-04-20 17:49:00
    大家好,我是本次AMA的嘉宾主持巴比特国际站站长Wendy。很高兴能策划并参与本场AMA~对于几位嘉宾,我有一些问题,首先第一个问题希望所有嘉宾都可以回答:

    不同的投资方式有那么多,请问如何定义最好的投资方式?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Mati Greenspan 发表于2020-04-23 13:17:33

    Mati Greenspan:

    任何能够让你持续赚钱的方式。而交易方式的种类,也多如交易者的数量。每个人都有不同的风格,在找到最适合你的风格之前,通常需要反复尝试。


    Mati Greenspan 水手 回复Wendy@8btc 发表于2020-04-23 13:05:35 嘉宾
    Whatever makes you money consistently. There are as many ways to trade as there are traders. Each person has a different style and it usually takes a bit of trial and error before you find what works best for you.
    洒脱喜 副船长 回复洒脱喜 发表于2020-04-23 13:01:14 嘉宾
    补充一点,尽管我很喜欢比特币,理性参与也很重要,比特币它不会也无法替代法币,日常生活还是需要法币或类似支付宝这样的支付方式来解决的。

    关于Hodl,其实最最重要的事情,就是要保管好自己的私钥或助记词,这决定了你上面所做的一切工作不会被摧毁,否则辛辛苦苦反人性了几年,最后却因为私钥丢失或者平台出事而丢了币……这个画面我不敢想,有点太痛苦。

    那如何保管好私钥呢,这是一个非常值得探讨的问题,在后面的回答中我会详细说说。
    洒脱喜 副船长 回复Wendy@8btc 发表于2020-04-23 13:00:42 嘉宾
    关于加密货币投资,我就简单讲讲个人的理解吧:

    首先是要因人而异,对于不同的人群,适合的投资方式就是不同的,根据帕累托法则,适合做交易的(无论是高频、杠杆、期货还是其他的衍生品之类的)群体是属于少数的,这些镰刀玩家掌握了很大的交易优势(有效信息、资金优势等)。

    而像我这样的多数人,是不适合做交易的,如果你经常会遇到“卖出就上涨,买入就下跌”的怪圈,就说明你具有“韭菜”体质,那这个时候,定投和Hodl就会比较适合了,这些是“老韭菜”们亲身被割后总结出来的保命经验。

    (开个玩笑:卖币是不可能卖币的,这辈子都不可能卖币,就是交易又不会做,只有囤币才能维持得了生活这样子……囤币感觉跟回家一样!我一年回家,大年三十晚上放炮我都不卖币。囤币的人,个个都是人才,说话又好听,喔唷~超喜欢在里面!)

    言归正传,但实际上呢,定投和Hodl这两个方案对于多数人来说又是不适用的,怎么理解呢?

    一个原因是,多数人认为比特币只是投机品,并不是什么保值的东西,因此觉得长期持有不现实,也危险。

    然后就是,定投和Hodl是反人性的,每当我们看到币价上涨了,就忍不住想去交易,然后每当价格暴跌的时候,也会忍不住去交易,人性的贪婪会驱使我们去想:“为什么不能低买高卖呢,来回赚差价多爽!”,那这个时候,我们就很可能成为黑暗森林里镰刀手的猎物了,所以多数人是做不到Hodl的,定投也是类似的情况。

    但我们都知道的是,成功的交易者,都是能控制住自己情绪的,他们和多数人的思维不同,简单说,成功的交易者也是反人性的。

    所以,想要赢利就只能做少数人,那如果大家都去Hodl和定投,那说明这两个方案就不是反人性的了,市场就饱和了,也就没有了机会。

    当然,这两个策略主要是针对比特币的,以太坊也可以勉强应用,其余的标的就不太适合。

    然后,有人可能会说,从2018年初Hodl到现在,比特币价格一样是腰斩再打骨折啊,一样亏成屎,从法币的角度来看,的确是这样的。

    因为Hodl的本质,只是确保让你不亏币,而不是让你暴富。

    然后,这就引出了非常关键的一点 —— Hodl的选择时期,毕竟从高点开始Hodl,和从低点开始Hodl是完全不同的,以及Hodl 2年和Hodl 4年,结果也是非常不同的。

    因此,想要Hodl地从容,Hodl地漂亮,就需要研究周期,然后配合定投和定售策略,理论上打这套组合拳就可以获得更多的比特币,尽管这听上去好像灰常简单啊,但真正要想实现,其实是非常困难的一件事情,一是需要极大的耐心,二是,这个过程非常的反人性,而这也是我非常想去实现的。

    关于DeFi,虽然自己一直在关注一些项目和进展,但我迟迟都不敢参与,主要就是胆太小,会担心安全问题,另一个问题就是不够有钱,没法任意试验。

    其它的投资方式,我了解的不是特别多。
  • Wendy@8btc 版主 发表于2020-04-20 17:51:03
    第二个问题给Antonio:上周,Uniswap和Lendf.me协议接连遭受攻击,这也并非DeFi协议第一次被爆出安全问题,DeFi安全事件频发,是否担心产生信任危机?代码审计为何没能避免这类问题?另外可否分享dYdX最近的动态和计划?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Antonio Juliano 发表于2020-04-23 13:21:48

    Antonio:

    安全

    构建一个安全且复杂的智能合约系统是一项艰巨的工程任务,这必须由顶级专业工程师完成。仅依靠审计是不够的,Lendf.me 是通过复制Compound的代码构建出来的,运营者对代码没有足够的了解,无法理解已知的局限性。

    dYdX是由一支在Coinbase和Google等顶级科技公司构建安全系统的有经验的工程师团队组建而成的。dYdX至今的交易额超过了15亿美元,而没有曝过任何漏洞。甚至审计方也没有在dYdX身上找到过安全漏洞。

    不是所有的DeFi平台都是一样的。用户只能使用信誉良好且经过战斗测试的DeFi产品,这一点至关重要。

    dYdX路线图

    本周早些时候,dYdX推出了BTC永续交易产品,我们对此次发布感到兴奋的原因有以下几个:

    1、截至目前,永续市场是最流行的加密货币交易方式,我们认为这是一种自然适合在DeFi上交易的方式;

    2、用户将能够在dYdX上第一次交易BTC!BTC显然是加密货币交易中最为广泛的资产,但迄今为止仍无法在DeFi中进行清算交易;

    3、永续市场允许我们提供更高的杠杆率、更好的清算比率以及更具流动性的交易;

    4、在提供BTC永续交易服务之后,我们计划为其它资产添加永续交易服务,从长期来看,我们有兴趣建立其他类型金融衍生品的去中心化版本;

    Antonio Juliano 水手 回复Wendy@8btc 发表于2020-04-23 13:04:17 嘉宾
    Security
    Building a secure complex smart contract system is a challenging engineering task, and must be done by top professional engineers. Audits alone are not enough. Lendf.me was built by copying the code from Compound Finance, and the operators did not have a good enough understanding of the code to understand known limitations.
    dYdX is built by a team of engineers with experience building secure systems at top technology companies like Coinbase and Google. dYdX has transacted over $1.5 billion without any vulnerabilities. dYdX has never even had a security vulnerability discovered by auditors.
    All DeFi platforms are not created equal. It is critical that users only use reputable and battle tested DeFi products.
    dYdX Roadmap
    Earlier this week, dYdX launched its BTC Perpetual product. We’re excited about this launch for a few reasons:
    • Perpetual markets are by far the most popular way to trade crypto, and we think are a natural fit for trading on DeFi
    • Users will be able to trade BTC on dYdX for the first time! BTC is obviously the most widely traded asset in crypto, but still has not been able to be traded liquidly in DeFi up until now
    • Perpetual markets allow us to offer higher leverage, better liquidation ratios, and more liquid trading
    After the BTC Perpetual, we plan to add Perpetuals for other assets. In the longer term we are interested in building decentralized versions of other types of financial derivatives.
  • Wendy@8btc 版主 发表于2020-04-20 17:54:21
    给Kyle:
    1. dForce在遭受攻击后,锁仓资产瞬间暴跌,后续的解决方案是什么?黑客在攻击后还返还了部分加密货币,甚至联系了官方团队,吃瓜群众不禁好奇黑客的目的是啥?以后如何避免同类问题的发生?
    2. Multicoin作为知名的投资公司,在投资上有没有什么建议?可否分享一下投资组合?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Kyle Samani 发表于2020-04-23 14:57:27

    Kyle Samani:

    我们很高兴这笔钱被成功追回了。情况仍然存在变化,所以只有在事情发生后才可以做出评价。然而,我可以说,dForce的创始人民道,已经做出了一些很好的解释,并在危机期间显示了极优秀的领导能力。在攻击发生后的几个小时内,他迅速采取行动,协调各方,及时、清晰地沟通,在整个过程的每一步都保持透明。最重要的是,他的行动迅速收回了资金。从各方面考虑,这是一个非常好的结果。他就是我们希望投资的创始人的典型代表。

    Defi仍处于萌芽阶段,而且非常脆弱。长期来看,我们认为开放金融是一个巨大的市场机会,但仍有许多问题需要解决。我提倡严格的第三方安全审计、定期检查和强大的风险管理协议。Defi的管理原则应该与大型托管机构管理其资产的原则相同。

    我们的投资跨越了三大主题。我们把这些主题称为Crypto Mega Thesis。我去年写了一篇关于这方面的文章,之后我在一些活动中发表过演讲。这三大主题是开放金融、Web3和非主权货币。

    开放式金融的目标是让所有的价值单位——股票、债券、房地产、货币等都实现可互操作、可编程并可组合在公开的账本上。开放金融将使资本市场更加高效,并使地球上的每个人都能使用它。

    Web3的愿景是让消费者能够控制和管理自己的数据。目前,世界上所有的数据基本上都存在于由谷歌、Facebook、亚马逊、阿里巴巴、腾讯等大公司控制的大型数据库中。Web3想要颠覆这种模式。

    最后,这三者中最大、最有名的主题是非主权货币。当人们将比特币称为“数字黄金”时,他们往往直接或间接地谈到了这一主题;然而,我觉得这个框架太窄了。正如我以前写过的,我认为非主权货币的机会实际上比数字黄金大得多;大约是100万亿美元。

    Kyle Samani 水手 回复Wendy@8btc 发表于2020-04-23 13:46:58 嘉宾

    1. We’re grateful that the funds were successfully recovered. The situation is still active, so untofuantely I can expand more on the events that transpired at this time.

    However, I can say that Mindao, the founder of dForce, has written some great explainers and shown tremendous leadership throughout this entire ordeal.

    He took swift action and coordinated several parties within hours of the attack, communicated clearly, on time, and with transparency at every step of the process. And, most importantly, his actions led to a swift recovery of the funds. All things considered, that’s a tremendous outcome. He exemplifies the exact type of founder that we look to invest in.

    Defi is still extremely nascent, and fragile. Long term, we believe Open Finance is a massive market opportunity but there’s still many problems that need to be solved. I’m an advocate for rigorous, third-party security audits, regular checkups, and strong risk management protocols. Defi should be governed with the same principles that large custodians use to manage their assets.


    2. We invest across three major themes. We call these themes our Crypto Mega Thesis. I wrote a blog post about this last year and have spoken at several events since. At a high level, the three categories are Open finance, as I mentioned above, Web3, and Non-Sovereign Money.

    The goal of Open Fiance is to make all units of value—stocks, bonds, real estate, currencies, etc.—interoperable, programmable, and composable on open ledgers. Open finance will make capital markets more efficient and accessible to everyone on the planet.

    The vision of Web3 is about empowering consumers to control their own and manage their own data. Right now, all of the data in the world largely resides in massive data lakes controlled by large companies like Google, Facebook, Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent, and so forth. Web3 wants to flip this paradigm.

    Lastly, the largest and most well known thesis amongst the three is Non-Sovereign Money. When people talk about bitcoin as “digital gold” they are often directly or indirectly addressing this thesis; however, I find this framing to be far too narrow. As I’ve written before, I think the opportunity for non-sovereign money is actually much larger than that of digital gold; it’s on the order of $100 trillion.

  • Wendy@8btc 版主 发表于2020-04-20 17:55:00
    给Mati:分析师是一个很神奇的职业,经常会被调侃是反指,可否分享一下做加密货币分析师是一种什么样的体验?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Mati Greenspan 发表于2020-04-23 13:25:45

    Mati Greenspan :

    非常感谢您的提问,您说的对,这并不容易,但我喜欢它!

    实际并没有可能预测市场,这就是为什么我不会公开喊单,相反,我会尽我所能告诉大家影响价格上涨或下跌的因素,然后他们可以自行选择。

    尽管我拥有的执照允许我给人们提供交易建议,但只有是我的个人客户,并且是在我了解他们的个人投资组合及风险偏好的情况下,才会告诉他们什么时候应该买进,什么时候应该卖出。

    Mati Greenspan 水手 回复Wendy@8btc 发表于2020-04-23 13:08:03 嘉宾
    Thanks a lot for asking. You’re absolutely right, it’s not easy but I love it!!
    It’s not possible to predict or time the markets. That’s why I refrain from making public buy/sell calls. Rather, I will do my best to inform people of the factors that might send the price up or down and they can choose for themself.
    Even though my license allows me to give people trading advice, I will only ever tell people what/when to buy and sell if they are my personal client and I understand their personal portfolio and appetite for risk.
  • Wendy@8btc 版主 发表于2020-04-20 17:56:04
    给洒脱喜:持有加密货币但不操作其实是很难的一件事,你是怎么做到控制你自己的?有没有什么故事可以分享?
    洒脱喜 副船长 回复Wendy@8btc 发表于2020-04-23 13:01:47 嘉宾
    关于“怎么做到控制自己不操作”,其实上面已经讲到了一部分,就是实践交易后发现“自己越操作,亏的币或钱也就越多”,在认识到这一现实后,你自然就能做到不操作了,那不操作还可以是不持币啊?

    所以这就牵扯到了另一个问题:为什么觉得比特币有价值,或者说Hodl的逻辑是什么?简单说,就在于它是目前唯一一种靠谱的、安全的、可自主掌控的、总量被代码和社区共识定死的数字资产,我们也常常会用一个词“去中心化”来形容它,而其它的数字资产,都没法同时具备这些特性,而所谓的“数字黄金”、“数量有限”都只是一种相对容易理解的叙述,在这些特性当中,如果缺少其中的一样,都会导致比特币的价值大大减少,但目前的情况是,这些基本面属性是在加强的,因此,理论上越多人意识到这种属性,比特币的价值就会越高,这是Hodl的基本逻辑。

    那哪天这种Hodl共识或信仰会崩塌呢?比如比特币真的修改了2100万BTC总量(无论是增发还是销毁),或者把中本聪的100多万BTC给冻结了,那我会立马离开它,其它的像黑客丢币,或者量子计算爆发之类的事情,都属于技术可解决的范畴。 (销毁也离开?能销毁,意味着有人可能已经控制了比特币)

    动漫作品《海贼王》里的手术果实拥有者罗,他可以将人的心脏取出来,并确保其生命不死,而如果这颗心脏脱离了主人的控制,那就意味着他要受制于人,同样的,如果自己的钱受制于人,则意味着失去了hodl它的意义。

    可能有人会说,假设中本聪出来,他把币价砸到1000元、100元、10元、1元,Hodl党还会有信仰吗?那我会告诉你,Hodl党会非常非常地开心,因为这一事件并不影响上面提到的特性,反而会是一个极好的机会。

    至于要分享的故事,其实是挺大众化的,在初期参与比特币的时候,会是自己持币最多的时候,一部分损失是通过骚操作搞丢的,一部分则是通过杠杆、期货之类的衍生品爆仓爆丢的,而这也可能会是多数人都会经历的一个过程。这里给的一个建议是,在最初接触加密货币的时候,我们只投入很少很少一部分资金,先试试水了解清楚自己是属于镰刀,还是韭菜,四年之后,回顾一下自己的币是多了还是少,是赚钱了还是亏钱了?弄清楚之后再考虑增多或放弃,或者干脆直接认定自己不擅长交易,直接选多数人不会去做的Hodl和定投选择,这可以少走很多的弯路。
  • Wendy@8btc 版主 发表于2020-04-20 17:56:34
    给Ryan:Tezos是质押资金量最大的Staking币种,你认为是什么让用户选择了你们?之前很少见Tezos团队在国内现身,这次参与AMA是否有进军中国市场的计划?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Ryan Lackey 发表于2020-04-23 13:28:21

    Ryan Lackey :

    Tezos在建立baker全球社区和代币委托人方面非常成功(注:由于该项目起源于法国,我们在Tezos生态系统内将验证称为“baking”)。我们非常感谢Tezos生态系统中的用户社区,他们在地理位置、背景、技术专长等方面非常多元化,而他们都非常关心Tezos的使命 ——建立一个技术及政策工具都支持广泛去中心化及有意义应用的数字联邦。

    我认为全世界都知道中国是一个非常重要和独特的市场,我们希望在中国有更多的用户。中国有很多优秀的开发人员,如果有什么方法可以吸引那些开发人员(无论是在中国或全球范围内)在Tezos项目上工作的话,这对我们来说会是非常有趣的。我们确实有一个Tezos中国组织,该组织正在成长,然后分配了一些技术和商业资源,以支持在中国使用Tezos的开发人员、教育及项目,但将Tezos引入中国这个目标仍处于早期阶段。而位于瑞士的Tezos基金会,我们正继续了解有关中国市场的更多信息,但到目前为止,我们所了解到的都是非常积极的。

    Ryan Lackey 水手 回复Wendy@8btc 发表于2020-04-23 13:09:35 嘉宾
    Tezos has been very successful at building a global community of bakers (we call validation “baking” within the Tezos ecosystem, due to the French origins of the project) and token delegators. One thing we are very thankful for is the community of users in the Tezos ecosystem -- they are very diverse in location, background, technical expertise, etc., but deeply care about the mission of Tezos -- building a digital commonwealth with both technical and policy tooling supporting broad decentralization and meaningful applications.

    I think everyone worldwide knows China is very important and unique market, and we would love to have more users in China. China has many great developers, and if there is any way we can help those developers work on Tezos projects (inside China or globally) that is very interesting to us. We do have a Tezos China organization which is growing and includes some technology and business resources to support developers, education, and projects using Tezos in China already, but it is still early in the introduction of Tezos to China. At Tezos Foundation in Switzerland, we are continuing to learn more about the Chinese market, but what we have learned so far is very positive.
  • 牛头大哥 管理员 发表于2020-04-20 18:13:32
    链节点官方提问:

    Q1. 各位对加密货币投资持有怎么样的观念?有多少人在定投?


    Q2. To洒脱喜:从技术角度来看,2020年最令你感到兴奋的区块链技术/项目有哪些?


    Q3. To Mati: 看到您从13岁开始涉足金融市场,是通过什么契机?作为加密货币领域的专家您在分析时会用到传统金融的投资思路吗?受新冠疫情影响,全球经济陷入低迷,在这个情况下你对未来加密货币市场有什么预测?


    Q4. To Ryan: Tezos过去一年取得了什么进展?对此你感到满意吗?tzBTC对于Tezos来说也算是一次DeFi的尝试,能否向中国用户介绍一下推出tzBTC的意义,与竞品WBTC相比有什么优势?


    Q5. To Antonio & Ryan:最近接连几起DeFi协议遭受攻击,有没有引起DeFi从业者的警惕?目前有什么好的防御方案么?还是说以目前DeFi的发展没有办法很好地规避?


    Q6. To Kyle:一般投资机构评判一个优质项目的标准有哪些?这些标准在散户筛选区块链项目时同样适用吗?

    洒脱喜 副船长 回复牛头大哥 发表于2020-04-23 20:36:29 嘉宾
    Q1:观念上面我已经提了,定投的话也是属于少部分的人,这个数字很难去统计,或许可以通过挖掘链上数据来跟踪,但目前好像没有哪家数据公司有做这个的。

    Q2: 项目上,真正令人感到兴奋的,可能依旧只有BTC和ETH,自己也参与了一些创新性较强的项目,但最终目的还是为了赚取更多的BTC,技术的话就可以有很多了,比如各种零知识证明方案,比特币会运用的Taproot、Schnorr签名、Erlay、Stratum V2、Utreexo等,以太坊的无状态客户端研究套餐、Rollup等Layer-2扩容方案,跨链技术也可以小小期待下,但我觉得短期是没啥需求。
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Kyle Samani 发表于2020-04-23 15:06:23

    Kyle Samani:

    Multicoin管理着公共对冲基金和私有风投基金。在私有基金方面,我们评估项目的方式和其他风投一样。我们会评估团队、市场、其规模、存在的问题、解决方案、业务模型、市场推广策略等等;不过,我们也会关注加密货币原生属性。我们经常会提出的问题是:这个产品或网络是否需要区块链来运作?这个网络是否需要一个专用的代币?这个代币是否能够产生价值?这个代币是否能驱动网络效应?这个网络能否实现一个不分叉的状态等等。

    我们是基本面驱动型的投资者。任何投资者—无论是散户或其他类型的—都可以使用批判性思维和基本策略来评估市场上的项目。你只需要时间和经验来有效地做——说起来容易做起来难。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Kyle Samani 发表于2020-04-23 15:02:26

    Kyle Samani:

    世界正在我们眼前改变,投资者的兴趣也在改变。在西方市场,60/40的投资组合几十年来一直是投资组合配置的一个标志。然而,随着通胀风险的迫近,债券和固定收益等传统上更安全的资产受到质疑(而且在未来的机构投资组合中不符合它们的预期目的),资本将需要重新配置到其他资产中。我们预计比特币和加密资产将是有吸引力的替代品。即使流入生态系统的资金很少,也会对现有的持有者产生巨大的影响。

    此外,随着中国DC/EP等央行数字货币乃至Facebook Libra等大型数字货币项目的落地生根,我预计加密资产将很快得到应用。我认为,世界上的每个人都严重高估了短期内发生这种情况的可能,但严重低估了中长期内发生这种情况的可能。总的来说,只需简单的操作,Facebook和中国就可以立即让数十亿人用上加密资产。因为它是一款软件,而且每个人的口袋里都已经有了一部智能手机,所以它的普及速度可能比许多人想象的要快得多。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Antonio Juliano 发表于2020-04-23 13:45:02

    Antonio Juliano:

    问题不是人们尚未了解这些问题,而是用户正在使用由非顶级工程团队构建的DeFi产品。 Lendf.me和imBTC Uniswap池遭到黑客攻击是因为一个重入问题,这个问题已被顶级开发人员公布了一年多。几个月前,BZX遭到黑客攻击则是因为预言机问题,而预言机的问题已经被顶级开发人员公开了一年多。

    dYdX是由一支在Coinbase和Google等顶级科技公司构建安全系统的有经验的工程师团队组建而成的。dYdX至今的交易额超过了15亿美元,而没有曝过任何漏洞。甚至审计方也没有在dYdX身上找到过安全漏洞。

    不是所有的DeFi平台都是一样的。用户只能使用信誉良好且经过战斗测试的DeFi产品,这一点至关重要。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Ryan Lackey 发表于2020-04-23 13:41:20

    Ryan Lackey :

    我认为DeFi世界的人们(现在)已经意识到了这些问题,但是在很多平台上构建安全的应用程序,在技术上是困难的 —— 这就像在20世纪90年代在没有内存保护的平台上构建C/C++的安全应用程序一样,它是可以完成的,但它不是构建应用程序的“默认”方式。因此需要大量的专业知识和努力才能确保安全。这是一个不断增长的痛苦时期,我认为前进的道路是更好的平台、更好的工具,以及对安全的、经审计的组件的重用——不需要每个DeFi应用每次都能从一开始就独特地构建所有东西。我认为该行业将度过这段时期,但是一般而言,构建安全可靠的DeFi应用存在一些根本性挑战 —— 经济和技术漏洞的组合,可能被世界各地的匿名对手利用,这是一个非常具有挑战性的威胁模型。我希望我们继续看到伟大的人们致力于DeFi,以推动行业向前发展。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Ryan Lackey 发表于2020-04-23 13:39:11

    Ryan Lackey:

    Tezos生态系统和平台在过去的一年中取得了很大进步。在过去的12个月中,我们已经看到了三个协议升级投票获得了通过,问题也很小,此外还有Tezos软件的持续开发,针对智能合约开发者的两种高级语言(SmartPy和LIGO)的出现,钱包、区块浏览器及其他基础设施的改进,以及大规模扩展Tezos基金会的赠款计划。从采用的角度来看,我们已经看到了同质、非同质和不可转让代币代币标准的发布,全球多家世界级机构宣布的商用STO,与托管机构和其他机构的整合,以及更容易让新用户参与进来。我对目前的进展感到开心,仍不满意的地方是,它仍然处于应用开发、基础设施部署和最终用户采用Tezos的早期阶段,大部分工作在未来仍要加强。今年晚些时候,一些特别值得一提的事情正在发生:zk-SNARK技术在性能和隐私协议中的应用,以提高系统的性能和可扩展性,以及提供对用户更友好的钱包。


    tzBTC是Tezos在DeFi世界中的一个应用,它的社区建设工作做得很好。这也是我们生态系统中的一个项目,而且部署本身还很早,因此,我很高兴看到它的发展。 tzBTC与WBTC相比的主要优势在于,tzBTC是位于Tezos之上的,因此产生的资产可用于Tezos智能合约。我认为Tezos在安全性和长期可扩展性(包括技术和策略)方面,对于智能合约具有很多优势。


    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Mati Greenspan 发表于2020-04-23 13:36:40

    Mati Greenspan:

    我曾经最着迷的是黄金的价格。当时,黄金每盎司还不到300美元,大约在那两年后,我和我的兄弟们把我们的成年礼资金凑成了一个对冲基金。我仍记得,我们在一起做了大量的研究,并最终得到了一个好的结果。


    加密货币只是我工作的一小部分。对我来说,看大局是常态。很幸运的是,我在相对较早的时候就认识到了加密资产的价值,然后加入了这个社区。不过,任何技术都存在风险,所以我们需要保持良好的平衡。


    从长远来看,很难说新冠疫情会对事情产生怎样的影响。目前,加密市场与美股的关系非常密切,因为两者都被视为风险资产。未来,则要看货币政策和数以万亿计的新增货币是否会带来一个长期的通胀期,这将是一件有趣的事情。如果真是这样,我相信比特币在这段时间将是一个很好的对冲工具。

    Kyle Samani 水手 回复牛头大哥 发表于2020-04-23 13:22:03 嘉宾

    Q1: The world is changing before our eyes and so are investor appetites.

    In the western markets, the 60/40 portfolio has been a hallmark of portfolio allocation for decades. However, as the risk of inflation looms, and traditionally safer assets like bonds and fixed income come into question (and doesn’t serve their intended purpose in an institutional portfolio moving forward), capital will need to be reallocated into other assets. We expect Bitcoin and cryptoassets to be attractive alternatives. Even if a miniscule amount of that money flows into the ecosystem it will have a tremendous impact on the current holder base.

    Additionally, as CBDCs like China’s DC/EP—and even large-scale digital currency projects like Facebook’s Libra—take root I expect rapid adoption of cryptoassets. I think everyone in the world radically overestimates the time horizon for this to happen in the short-term but radically underestimates it in the mid-to-long term. Collectively, Facebook and China could instantly expose cryptoassets to several billion people all at once with the flick of a switch. Because it’s software, and everyone already has a smartphone in their pocket, the rate of adoption could happen much faster than many think is even possible.

    Q6: At Multicoin Capital we manage a public hedge fund and private venture fund. On the private side we evaluate projects the same way other VCs would typically do. We look at the team, the market, its size, the problem, the solution, the business model, the go-to-market strategy, and so forth; however, we also look at crypto-native attributes, too. We often ask, does this product or network need a blockchain to function as promised, does this network need a proprietary token, does the token actually accrue value, does the token drive network effects, can the network achieve an unforkable state, and so forth.

    We’re fundamental, thesis-driven investors. Any investor—retail or otherwise—can use critical thinking and fundamental strategies to evaluate projects in the market. You just need the time and experience to effectively do so—which is easier said than done.

    Ryan Lackey 水手 回复牛头大哥 发表于2020-04-23 13:15:56 嘉宾
    Q5:I think people in DeFi are (now) very aware of the problems, but it’s technically difficult to build secure applications on many platforms -- it’s like building secure applications in C/C++ in the 1990s on platforms without memory protection, in that it can be done, but it’s not the “default” way to build applications, and thus requires a lot of expertise and effort to be safe. It’s a period of growing pains, and I think the way forward is better platforms, better tools, and re-use of secure, audited components -- there’s no need for each DeFi application to build everything from the ground up uniquely each time. I think the industry will get past this period, but there are some fundamental challenges to building secure and robust DeFi applications generally -- a combination of economic and technical vulnerabilities which can be exploited by anonymous adversaries anywhere in the world is a very challenging threat model. I hope we continue to see great people working on DeFi to move the industry forward.
    Ryan Lackey 水手 回复牛头大哥 发表于2020-04-23 13:14:24 嘉宾
    Q4:The Tezos ecosystem and platform overall has made a lot of progress over the past year. Over the past 12 months we’ve seen three protocol upgrades voted on and approved/adopted with minimal problems, continued development of the Tezos software, the emergence of two great high level languages for smart contract developers (SmartPy and LIGO), improvements to wallets and block explorers and other infrastructure, and massive expansion of the Tezos Foundation grants program. From the adoption side, we’ve seen the release of token standards for fungible, non-fungible, and non-transferable tokens, commercial STOs announced from multiple world-class institutions globally, integration with custodians and other institutions, and much easier onboarding of new users. I’m happy with the progress so far but not satisfied -- it is still early in the development of applications, deployment of infrastructure, and end user adoption of Tezos, and most of the work is still in the future. Some particularly worthwhile things are happening later this year -- the incorporation of zk-SNARK technology in a protocol amendment for performance and privacy, improvements to performance and scaling, and more user friendly wallets.

    tzBTC is one application of Tezos in the world of DeFi, and the community which built it has done a great job. It is also just one project in our ecosystem, and is itself very early in deployment, so I’m excited to see how it will grow. The primary advantage of tzBTC vs. WBTC is that tzBTC is on Tezos, so the assets produced can be used in Tezos smart contracts. I think Tezos has a lot of advantages for smart contracts in security and long-term scalability (including both technical and policy).
  • 牛头大哥 管理员 发表于2020-04-20 18:13:51
    欢迎大家继续提问!
  • B哥拉斯 队长 发表于2020-04-20 20:25:08
    弱弱问一句,Defi是什么?最近老看到这个词。
    牛头大哥 管理员 回复B哥拉斯 发表于2020-04-21 09:39:47
    Decentralized Finance,去中心化金融。
    它可以指基于区块链的去中心化工具的基础架构,如主要运行在以太坊网络上的数字资产、协议和 dApp。


  • gentledog 版主 发表于2020-04-20 22:13:20
    1、李笑来声称比特币已经过时,已经清仓所有比特币。你认为比特币是否已经过时?比特币的核心竞争力在哪里?
    2、迄今为止见到了许多Layer-2扩容方案,如侧链、闪电网络、状态通道、Plasma、Rollup等等,新技术层出不穷,令人眼花缭乱。也有人称这些技术都不靠谱。如果将来出现某种杀手级的扩容方案,你认为它会长什么样子?
    3、除数字货币、资产证券化、去中心化金融外,还有哪些最适合区块链、最能捕获市场价值、高附加值、高平台粘性的应用?
    4、市场上有哪些加密货币在去中心化方面真正超越比特币?在去中心化方面有哪些币值得关注?
    5、能够增强去中心化的技术有哪些?
    6、如果将来有一种加密货币最终取代了比特币,那么你认为这种加密货币长什么样子?
    7、在比特币减半之后,如果遭遇政策打压+算力攻击+合约疯狂做空,比特币是否还能活下来?
    8、比特币价格有明显的庄家操纵的迹象,你认为什么人在背后搞鬼?受到庄家操控的资产是否值得投资?它的安全边际在哪里?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Kyle Samani 发表于2020-04-23 15:13:03

    Kyle Samani:

    1、从根本上说,比特币处于非常有利的地位。它仍然拥有最大的市场份额,拥有最好的品牌,从来没有被攻击过,并得到一个充满活力的社区支持。最重要的是,比特币减半就要来了,它在历史上一直是重大价格波动的前兆。与比特币自身的基本面相比,更大的宏观经济力量(全球去杠杆化和流动性约束)对比特币的威胁更大。

    比特币的核心竞争力在于它的品牌和持久力。投资者乐于将比特币纳入他们的投资组合,以对冲通胀环境——如果全球经济继续沿着目前的道路发展下去的话。

    今天的比特币并不是一种价值储存手段——尽管许多人都这么说。事实上,作为保值品,它非常不称职,因为它非常不稳定,并且在最近受到了与华尔街一样的冲击。然而,比特币绝对是一种可以买入的资产,成为一新的保值品,其非对称的上涨机会足以让大多数投资者回血


    2、我们已经投资了上述很多方案,现在判断哪一个会最终胜出还为时过早。Nervos是一个非常引人注目的PoW链。Near是世界上最好的做分片网络的团队。Skale拥有当今市场上最简洁、可用、创造性的rollup技术。如果一定要选择其中的一个,我会选最简单的一种:一层扩容。

    Solana是目前唯一具备网络级扩容能力的一层区块链。他们刚刚发布了主网,他们已经处理了7,000,000个区块,速度高达每秒50,000笔交易。这意味着Solana的出块数量已经达到了Cosmos的两倍——而且它刚刚上线。Solana上线币安的时候,存入资产的速度非常快,用户还以为是假的。Solana真的很快。

    从开发方面来看,Solana完成了5件事:高吞吐量(原始速度)、低延迟(400毫秒的出块时间),超低的手续费(每笔交易大约0.00001美元)、简单(没有分片、没有侧链、没有二层技术)和强大的信任(单一的信任模型)。没有其他网络或扩容方案能够同时做到这些。最棒的是,Solana已经上线,并非处于研究阶段。因此,尽管许多项目仍在试图解决简单的计算机科学问题要实现可扩展性,Solana已经可以做出一个具备网络扩容能力的Dapp。


    3、我最初进入区块链领域就是因为Web3。我的上一家公司是平台风险的受害者。像这样发自内心的体验让我真正理解了不拥有或控制你的数据或你所构建的平台所需的风险。

    尽管DeFi有很多令人兴奋的进展,但我实际上很期待看到下一波Web3应用。在过去的两年中,有几个引人注目的项目进入了市场,让人们能够做到在之前几年根本不可能做的事情。像Graph和dfuse这样的项目让查询区块链和赋能dapp变得非常容易;像Torus这样的项目解决了密钥管理问题,密钥管理是加密货币普及的最大制约因素;像Arweave和LivePeer这样的项目为下一波数据应用开发开辟了全新的市场。因此,我们投资了许多这样的项目,并期待着下一代dapp的诞生。


    4、这是一个复杂的问题,因为它取决于你如何定义“去中心化”,但为了简单起见,我想说,目前没有比比特币更去中心化的网络了。


    5、交易所在未来将扮演重要角色,因为它们的功能将从单纯的交易场所,转变为一个综合的、水平的加密资产市场。许多交易所现在提供staking服务,这将提高PoS协议的参与率。

    另一个有趣的点是移动设备。虽然我不认为手机可以挖矿,但我确实认为它们有可能成为数百万独立见证者,确保部分矿工的诚实。从这个角度来看,可以通过各种不同的方法来实现去中心化。


    6、我相信所有的一层协议都是钱。因此,无论最终取代比特币的是什么,都将是一层协议。它将具有货币的所有性质(可互换性、交换手段、记账单位、价值储存等),除了可编程性的优势以外。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Ryan Lackey 发表于2020-04-23 13:59:25

    Ryan Lackey:

    1、比特币的社区非常抵制变革,尤其是抵制涉及任何牺牲的变革。我能理解这一点,这是一项基本上由这一原则定义的资产,但我也能理解为什么重视创新而非稳定的人会反对这一点。(当然,具有讽刺意味的是,10年前创建的一个革命性的协议,现在已经成为了当前不变的传统系统。)

    2、我们在加密方面还处于早期,甚至在扩容解决方案方面也处于早期。我认为技术上的优势,对于扩展技术赢家的出现是很重要的,但是对于不同类型的用户来说,完全有可能会有不同的取舍,所以我们很容易看到多个系统成功共存。我不是这些layer 2 扩容解决方案的专家,但我正在密切关注它们。

    3、归根结底,最适合区块链技术的应用,是那些具有特定技术要求的应用 —— 在一组开放用户中具有共识和审查阻力。支付和数字资产(大体上,包括DeFi和更传统的代币化)是两个非常重要的应用,它们非常适合区块链这个平台。在游戏、其他非传统类型的资产及交换、身份和协作中,可能会有一些引人注目的应用。今天,我们可能不知道所有五年后会成功的应用,也没法知道所有25年后会成功的应用。

    4、去中心化不是一个一维变量。比特币在某些方面是最去中心化的加密货币,但在其他方面是非常中心化的。与其抽象地谈论去中心化,不如通过比较特定类型的去中心化来比较项目,这可能会更有用。

    5、去中心化受到许多技术和商业因素的支持。具有广泛的开发人员社区及多个独立实现的开源,是一个非常积极的特征。一种加密货币的多个独立的最终用户应用,是很重要的。否则,该平台只能按照占主导地位的应用的需求发展。地理和跨行业采用对我们有很大帮助,这带来了其他地方的最佳创意。某些技术选择(PoW与PoS)可以对去中心化产生影响,但这取决于如何做出选择,即ASIC硬件挖矿往往会与去中心化背道而驰,因为只有资本充足的团队才能构建挖矿硬件,但封闭和小型的PoS验证者集也不利于去中心化,因此实际的实现很重要(我自己更喜欢开放PoS验证者集)。

    6、我不认为“替换比特币”是各种项目的正确目标,“使世界变得更好,并替换旧的金融和支付基础设施”会是一个更好的目标。即使比特币也不是真正的主流,仅以1:1取代比特币,并不能促进加密市场的发展。我希望看到有平台在技术上继续发展,并找到能够使加密市场比今天大几个数量级的应用。

    7、有许多攻击可能会伤害比特币,但它可能会适应。最终,只要用户对比特币有需求,不管有什么攻击,比特币都可能会继续存在,但如果攻击非常严重,且持续时间很长,那么需求就会减少。

    8、无法回答这个问题。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Mati Greenspan 发表于2020-04-23 13:56:08

    Mati:

    1、不,比特币绝对没有过时。它仅仅是刚刚开始。除了先发优势之外,比特币是地球上唯一一种拥有去中心化治理的可信货币。

    2、截至目前,通过增加隔离见证(segwit)的使用量,比特币的网络运行良好,隔离见证(segwit)似乎确实在显著增加容量。据我所知,下一次主链的重大升级,将包含一个名为taproot的协议,这个协议似乎相对没有争议,应该有助于网络的进一步发展。

    7、是的,比特币可能是目前地球上最具抵抗力的计算机网络,它在几乎任何类型的攻击下,都应该能够很好地生存下去。去中心化使得它很强,工作量证明模型确保何此类攻击都将是非常昂贵的,它们的影响是暂时的。当然,这是我的理解。

    8、地球上每一种可交易资产,都有一定程度的价格操纵。然而,没有人能够在公开市场上持续操纵价格很长时间。在经济学中,这一概念被称为“看不见的手”。在短期内交易任何东西都可能非常困难,而且确实会让个别交易员暴露在风险之中。但是,从长远来看,比特币被设计为通缩的,这就是我会关注的这一独特资产的原因。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Antonio Juliano 发表于2020-04-23 13:53:22

    Antonio Juliano:

    1、我不会说比特币已经过时了,只是它提供了一个不同于其他加密货币的,在技术上更为有限的用例。在我看来,比特币的核心竞争力是最去中心化和最抵抗扣押的资产,这将永远是一个巨大的应用。

    显然dYdX和大多数其他DeFi平台都构建在以太坊上。尽管以太坊提供了许多比特币所不具备的新功能,但比特币将始终是一种值得交易和持有的有趣资产。这就是我们在dYdX推出BTC永续合约的原因之一!

    2、可能会有不同的扩容解决方案用于不同的问题。特别是对于像dYdX这样的去中心化交易所,我目前最感兴趣的是zk-rollup和optimistic rollup。

    3、目前,由于基础区块链的技术限制,我认为除了数字资产和Defi之外,目前没有任何其他主要的使用案例。特别是在Defi领域,我相信最有趣和最有价值的东西将是衍生品。我们已经看到这种情况在中心化交易所上演,像永续合约这样的衍生品已经成为主导。我们相信这也会发生在DeFi,这就是为什么我们刚刚推出了我们的BTC永续合约!

    4、在我看来,比特币可能是目前最去中心化的加密货币。我认为,有一天,一种PoS币可能会变得更加去中心化,但这还有待观察。

    9、是的,DeFi也面临类似的挑战。不过,我认为实现这三个目标并非不可能,只是很有挑战性。与底层区块链类似,我认为顶级DeFi平台已经实现了去中心化和安全性,但尚未实现可扩展性。dYdX正在积极研究扩展性解决方案,并将是最有希望方案的早期采用者。


    Kyle Samani 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:52:00 嘉宾

    1. Fundamentally speaking, bitcoin is in a very strong position. It still commands the largest market share, has the best brand, has never been hacked, and is backed by a vibrant community of supporters. On top of that, bitcoin is approaching the havlenving, which historically has been a precursor to major price movements. Bitcoin is more threatened by the larger macroeconomic forces at play (see: world-wide deleveraging and liquidity constraints) than its own fundamentals.

    Bitcoin’s core competitiveness is it's brand and it’s staying power. Investors are comfortable putting bitcoin in their portfolios as a hedge against inflationary environments—like the one we may see if the global economy continues down the path that it's on.

    Bitcoin, today, is not a store of value, despite what many say. It is, in fact, a very poor store of value because it is so erratic, and, more recently, subject to the same market forces as Wall St. However, bitcoin is absolutely a call option on it becoming a new store value, and the asymmetric upside of that opportunity is enough to get most investors out of bed.


    2. We’ve invested in many of these different approaches and it’s too early to say which one will win. Nervos is an extremely compelling PoW chain. Near is the best team in the world to build a sharded network. Skale has the most elegant, usable, out-of-the-box rollup in the market today.

    However, if I had to choose only one approach today, I would choose the simplest: scaling Layer 1.

    Solana is the only Layer 1 blockchain that is web-scale today. They just launched their mainnet and they’ve already processed 7,000,000 blocks with speeds up to 50,000 transactions per second. For context, that means Solana has already produced twice the number of blocks as Cosmos—and it just launched. When it listed on Binance the deposits were so fast that users thought it was fake. Solana is fast, like, really fast.

    For developers, Solana accomplishes 5 things: high throughput (raw speed), low latency (400 ms blocktimes), ridiculously cheap fees (on the order of ~$0.00001 per transaction), simplicity (no sharding, no side chains, no layer 2), and strong trust (a single trust model, vs. a fragmented trust model). No other network, or scaling solution, delivers on all of these promises. And the best part is, Solana is live today. It’s not still in research. So while many projects are still trying to solve non-trivial computer science problems to enable scaling, you can actually build a web-scale dapp on Solana today.


    3. I originally got into blockchain because of the Web3 vision. My last company was a victim of platform risk and I had the rug pulled out from underneath me. It took a visceral experience like this for me to really understand the risk of not owning or controlling your data or the platforms you’re building on.

    While there’s a ton of excitement around DeFi, I’m actually looking forward to seeing the next wave of Web3 dapps. Over the past two years several compelling projects have come to market that make it possible to do things that simply weren’t possible in the years before that. Projects like The Graph and dfuse now make it incredibly easy to query blockchains and power dapps; projects like Torus solve key management, which is the single biggest usability constraint in crypto today; projects like Arweave and LivePeer are opening up entirely new markets that never existed before to be utilities for the next wave of dapps. Rightfully so, we’re invested in many of these projects, and also looking forward to the next generation of dapps built with them.


    4. That’s a loaded question because it depends on how you’re defining “decentralized” but for simplicity's sake I’ll bite and just say that there is no other network more decentralized than Bitcoin right now.


    5. Exchanges will play an important role in the future as their function shifts from being only a place to trade to more of an integrated, horizontal marketplace for cryptoassets. Many exchanges are now offering native staking, which should increase the participation rate in PoS protocols.

    Another interesting frontier is mobile devices. While I don’t think mobile phones will ever mine tokens, I do think there’s a chance that they serve as millions of independent witnesses keeping a smaller group of miners honest. Viewed through this lens, decentralization can be achieved through a variety of different approaches.


    6. It’s my belief that all Layer 1 protocols are money. So whatever supplants bitcoin will be a Layer 1 protocol. It will have all of the qualities of money (fungible, means of exchange, unit of account, store of value, etc.) except with all of the extra benefits of programmability.

    Mati Greenspan 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:34:30 嘉宾
    1. No. It’s definitely not outdated. It’s just getting started. Aside from the first mover advantage, bitcoin is the only currency on the planet with a credible claim to decentralized governance.
    2. The network is doing alright so far by increasing the usage of segwit, which does seem to be increasing the capacity quite significantly. As I understand, the next major upgrade to the main chain will include a protocol called taproot, which seems to be relatively uncontested and should help with further development of the network.
    7. Yes, bitcoin is probably the most resilient computer network on the planet right now and should be able to hold up well under almost any type of attack. The decentralized nature makes it strong and the proof of work model ensures that any such attacks will be very expensive and their effects temporary. This is my understanding anyway.

    8. Every tradable asset on the planet has some level of price manipulation. However, nobody can consistantly manipulate the price of anything in an open market for very long. In economics, this concept is known as ‘the invisible hand’. Trading anything on the short term can be very difficult and does leave individual traders exposed. However, bitcoin is designed to be deflationary in the long term and that’s what I like to focus on for this unique asset.




    Antonio Juliano 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:31:44 嘉宾
    1. I wouldn’t say Bitcoin is outdated, just that it serves a different and more technically limited use case than some other cryptocurrencies. In my opinion, Bitcoin’s core competency is being the most decentralized and seizure resistant asset. This will always be a huge use case.
    Obviously dYdX and most other DeFi platforms are built on Ethereum. While Ethereum enables many new things Bitcoin does not, Bitcoin will always be an interesting asset to trade and hold. This is one of the reasons we’ve just launched our BTC Perpetual Contract at dYdX!
    2. Likely there will be different scaling solutions used for different problems. Specifically for decentralized exchanges such as dYdX, I’m currently most excited about zero knowledge rollups and optimistic rollups.
    3. Right now with the technical limitations of underlying blockchains I don’t believe there are currently any other major use cases besides digital assets and decentralized finance. Specifically within decentralized finance, I believe the most interesting and valuable thing will be derivatives. We have already seen this play out in centralized exchanges where derivatives like perpetual contracts have become dominant. We believe this will happen in DeFi as well, and that’s why we’ve just launched our BTC Perpetual Contract at dYdX!
    4. In my opinion, right now probably Bitcoin is the most decentralized cryptocurrency. I think it’s possible a proof of stake coin could become more decentralized some day, but this remains to be seen.
    Ryan Lackey 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:20:18 嘉宾

    1. Bitcoin’s community is very resistant to change, and in particular, resistant to change which involves any sacrifices. I can understand this -- it’s an asset which is largely defined by this principle, but I can also understand why people who value innovation over stability would be against that. (The irony of a revolutionary protocol created only 10 years ago now being the incumbent unchanging legacy system is there, of course.)

    2. We are still early in crypto, and even earlier in scaling solutions. I think technical merits will be important in the emergence of winners in scaling technologies, but it’s entirely possible there will be different trade-offs which make sense for different types of users, so we could easily see multiple systems coexisting successfully. I’m not an expert on these second layer scaling solutions, but am watching them closely.

    3. Ultimately, the applications best suited for blockchain technology are those with certain technical requirements -- consensus and censorship resistance among an open set of users. Payments and digital assets (broadly, including DeFi and more conventional tokenization) are two very significant applications well-suited to the platform. There might be some compelling applications in gaming, other non-traditional types of assets and exchange, identity, and collaboration. We probably don’t know all of the applications which will be successful in five years, today, and we definitely don’t know all of the applications which will be successful in 25 years.

    4. Decentralization isn’t a single dimensional variable. Bitcoin is the most decentralized crypto in some ways, but is very centralized in other ways. Rather than talking about decentralization in the abstract, it’s probably more useful to look at specific types of decentralization to compare projects.

    5. Decentralization is supported by many technical and business factors. Open-source, with a broad developer community and multiple independent implementations, is a very positive characteristic. Multiple independent end user applications of a cryptocurrency are important -- otherwise the platform only evolves in the way the dominant application demands. Geographic and cross-industry adoption help a lot, bringing in the best ideas from elsewhere. Some technical choices (PoW vs. PoS) can make a difference to decentralization, but it’s up to how the choices are made -- i.e. ASIC hardware mining tends to go against decentralization, as only well capitalized teams can build mining hardware, but closed/small validator set PoS also goes against decentralization, so the actual implementation matters (I prefer open validator set PoS, myself.)

    6. I’m not convinced “replacing bitcoin” is the correct goal for various projects -- “making the world better and replacing legacy financial and payments infrastructure” is a better goal. Even bitcoin isn’t truly mainstream, and just replacing Bitcoin 1:1 doesn’t grow the crypto market. I would like to see platforms continue to evolve technically and find applications to make the crypto market orders of magnitude bigger than it is today.

    7. There are many attacks which could hurt Bitcoin, but it would probably adapt. Ultimately as long as users have a demand for Bitcoin it will probably continue regardless of any attacks, but it’s possible attacks could be severe and lasting enough to reduce demand.

    8. [Can’t answer this question.]

    洒脱喜 副船长 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:03:23 嘉宾
    1、关于李笑来清仓所有比特币的说法,实际是当时他在直播时开的一个玩笑,他自己也澄清过了。而关于比特币是否过时的问题,我在上面的回答当中已经解释了一些看法。这里补充一下,即便Libra,DC/EP等CBDC通通推出了,它们都和比特币不构成竞争关系,属性是完全不同的,也就是说,比特币在它这个领域是极难会遇到对手的,所以我不认为比特币会过时。核心竞争力在上面的回答中已经提到过了。
    2、Layer-2扩容方案有很多,目前的情况就是这些方案会遇到各种的安全问题,至于扩容效果本身并不是真正的大问题,因为暂时没有太多的实际需求,所以,要说杀手级扩容方案的话,个人觉得会是很好地解决安全问题,并且做好UI的解决方案,然后最后再谈tps之类的。
    4、论整体去中心化,目测没有一个项目是超过比特币的,其次是以太坊,其它的就相对弱很多,但如果是单独拿一个点来论去中心化,有些项目是做的不错的。另外全节点数是其中一个衡量标准,有可能会是刷的,去中心化需要进行整体衡量,具体表现在规则更改的难易程度,是否有权控制你的资产等。
    如果有人是说一不二的,那这个项目就是中心化的。
    5、增强去中心化,主要从两方面入手,一是开发多元化,不要只有一种声音;然后是全节点去中心化,可以通过Utreexo这样的技术降低全节点的存储成本,或者是Erlay这样的协议可以降低带宽成本,这些都可以有效促进全节点的数量,从而增强系统的健壮性,然后是挖矿去中心化,Stratum V2这类方案可以把矿池的权利重新分配给矿工,这些是针对比特币的,其它的项目,我没有关注过太多,因为它们本身并不是特别强调去中心化。
    6、想要取代比特币,条件极为苛刻,一是由信用极高的国家发起,二是必须要拥有和比特币类似的属性,最重要的就是去中心化和总量限定,但这些条件几乎不可能同时满足。另一种可能,就是市值超过比特币,这种情况的可能性或许会大一些,比如真正做到了安全、可用,并且有很多人用的公链,目前有那么一丝可能的,或许就是以太坊,然后稳定币在总市值方面也会有一些机会。
    7、您说的这些情况,短时间内会造成币价的剧烈波动,但它们对于Hodl的逻辑并不构成影响,比特币会活的好好的。
    8、在我们遭遇无法说明原因的行情变动时,“庄家操纵”就是一种看似很合理的解释,但实际我们并不知道庄家是谁,这可能是由很多“镰刀手”合力形成的,而随着市场越来越大,“镰刀手”操纵的难度也会越来越大,而这些人就是适合交易的群体,但没法指出具体是谁,除非是一些小币种。
  • 数字币行 海盗王 发表于2020-04-20 22:21:10
    defi遭黑客攻击,损失惨重,有没有更周全的策略,为defi保驾护航?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Kyle Samani 发表于2020-04-23 15:33:23

    Kyle Samani:

    我们可以学习币安应对7000btc被盗的措施。他们提出将10%的交易手续费投入到保险基金中,我认为这是一个很好的例子,DeFi可以从中学习。由于DeFi中的许多漏洞来自于可组合性,因此还需要对资产集成进行更严格的审计。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Antonio Juliano 发表于2020-04-23 14:13:35

    Antonio Juliano:

    目前存在一些安全的DeFi平台。dYdX的工程师团队拥有在Coinbase和谷歌等顶尖技术公司开发安全系统的经验。dYdX的总交易量已经超过15亿美元,且从未出错。dYdX甚至在代码审计过程中也没有出现过安全漏洞。

    就像早期中心化交易所被攻击(Mt. Gox和Bitfinex等)一样,其最终导致用户选择更安全的中心化交易所,如今很多早期不安全的DeFi产品都被攻击了。DeFi本身并非不安全,用户只需要在选择DeFi产品的时候将安全放在第一位就好。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Ryan Lackey 发表于2020-04-23 14:12:08

    Ryan Lackey:

    DeFi真的很有趣,我认为它会成功,但我们确实看到了一些严重的安全问题。部分原因是由于在DeFi发展的早期,部分原因是由于工具的状态,但是还有一部分是由于DeFi应用的经济和技术安全挑战产生的根本原因——大量的资产处于风险之中,并且有很大的攻击范围。


    这个行业仍在学习如何安全地做DeFi。我认为DeFi应用的安全基础,比如为形式验证设计的语言、经过良好审计和可重复使用的组件软件,以及精密的监视和测试框架,这些都是必不可少的。一般来说,保证简单也是安全的前提——保护只执行少量功能且不依赖于外部资源的应用会更容易。


    加密货币(或者说计算)安全的重大挑战之一,尤其是DeFi,本质上在于跨学科的应用——你需要一个熟悉经济学、有交易策略经验、熟悉平台、对编程语言、代码库和工具有深入了解,并且知道同类平台早前曾遇到过什么样的问题的团队。


    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Mati Greenspan 发表于2020-04-23 14:10:57

    Mati Greenspan:

    DeFi还是一个非常新的东西,但非常令人兴奋。新的经济模式正在经受考验。一个没有传统银行体系利用散户投资者的世界是令人期待的,但也存在很多危险,尤其是在实验阶段。希望我们能在某一时刻解决这个问题,但现在还为时过早。

    Kyle Samani 水手 回复数字币行 发表于2020-04-23 13:59:21 嘉宾
    We could learn from what Binance have done after the 7000btc hack. They offered to burn 10% of their transaction fee into the Insurance fund and I think this is a great example that DeFi could learn from.
    A more rigorous auditing process for assets integration is needed too, as a lot of loopholes in DeFi come from composability.
    Ryan Lackey 水手 回复数字币行 发表于2020-04-23 13:38:06 嘉宾
    DeFi is really interesting and I think it will be successful, but we’ve definitely seen some serious security issues. Some of this is just due to being early in the evolution of DeFi, part is due to the state of tooling, but some of it is fundamental to the economic and technical security challenges of DeFi applications -- lots of value at risk and a large attack surface area.

    The industry is still learning how to do DeFi securely. I think having a secure foundation underneath the DeFi application, such as languages designed for formal verification, well-audited and re-usable components software, and sophisticated monitoring and testing frameworks are essential. In general simplicity is also a virtue in doing anything securely -- it is easier to secure applications which only do a few functions and don’t have complicated dependencies on external resources.

    One of the big challenges of security in crypto (and computing generally), but especially DeFi, is that these are inherently inter-disciplinary applications -- you need a team with economics knowledge, trading strategy experience, platform knowledge, deep knowledge of the programming language and libraries and tools used, and familiarity with how similar platforms have been exploited.
    Mati Greenspan 水手 回复数字币行 发表于2020-04-23 13:37:15 嘉宾
    The entire world of DeFi is still very new but extremely exciting. New economic models are being tested as we speak. It’s encouraging to imagine a world without the traditional banking system taking advantage of retail investors but there is a lot of danger as well, especially in the experimental phase. Hopefully we’ll be able to punch through that at some point but it’s still very early days.
    Antonio Juliano 水手 回复数字币行 发表于2020-04-23 13:36:37 嘉宾
    There are secure DeFi platforms that exist today. dYdX is built by a team of engineers with experience building secure systems at top technology companies like Coinbase and Google. dYdX has transacted over $1.5 billion without any vulnerabilities. dYdX has never even had a security vulnerability discovered by auditors.
    In the same way many early centralized exchanges were hacked (Mt. Gox, Bitfinex, etc.) which led to users moving to more secure centralized exchanges, now many early insecure DeFi products are being hacked. DeFi itself isn’t insecure, users just need to more highly prioritize security when determining which DeFi product to use.
  • gentledog 版主 发表于2020-04-20 22:33:08
    区块链领域有一个著名的不可能三角理论:去中心化、安全性和可扩展性三者不可兼得。在DeFi领域是否也有类似的不可能三角理论?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Antonio Juliano 发表于2020-04-23 15:52:02

    Antonio Juliano:

    是的,DeFi也面临类似的挑战。不过,我认为实现这三个目标并非不可能,只是很有挑战性。与底层区块链类似,我认为顶级DeFi平台已经实现了去中心化和安全性,但尚未实现可扩展性。dYdX正在积极研究扩展性解决方案,并将是最有希望方案的早期采用者。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Ryan Lackey 发表于2020-04-23 15:51:05

    Ryan Lackey:

    DeFi可能不会面临去中心化-安全性-可扩展性折衷之间的根本性问题,我认为我们离系统中“最大化”两个(或1个)的“有效边界”还差得很远。这个领域是新的,而工具不太合适。我们可能会在DeFi中发现一些基本的权衡取舍,但我认为我们在DeFi上,肯定能够做得比今天要好得多。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Kyle Samani 发表于2020-04-23 15:24:37

    Kyle Samani:

    没有什么是绝对的。DeFi是一把双刃剑:它的可组合性使全球流动性池成为可能,但与此同时,它的问题也让乐高摇摇欲坠。最终,对于一个产品来说,其核心价值应该始终是用户第一。


    Kyle Samani 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:52:55 嘉宾
    Nothing is absolute. What DeFi has offered is double-edged sword: it is the composability that allowed a global liquidity pool, but at the same time it is the same problem that made the LEGO shaky. At the end of the day, for a product, the core value should always be users first.
    Antonio Juliano 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:34:56 嘉宾
    Yes, it’s a similar challenge in DeFi. However I would argue that it’s not impossible to achieve all three, just very challenging. Similar to the underlying blockchains, I would say top DeFi platforms have achieved decentralization and security, but not yet scalability. dYdX is actively researching scaling solutions, and would be an early adopter of whichever seems most promising.
    Ryan Lackey 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:21:16 嘉宾
    DeFi might not be facing something as fundamental as the decentralization-security-scalability tradeoff -- I think we’re still far from the “efficient frontier” in systems to maximize even two (or one!) of these in DeFi, largely due to the field being new and tooling being less than suitable. We may discover some fundamental tradeoffs like that in DeFi, but I think we can definitely do a lot better with DeFi than we’ve done to date.
  • gentledog 版主 发表于2020-04-20 22:55:12
    给Ryan Lackey:
    Tezos 创建了怪异的编程语言 Michelson。据说这是一种通过数学验证智能合约等程序的可靠性来提高安全性的技术。能否具体谈谈这种编程语言怎样避免DeFi协议中的bug?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Ryan Lackey 发表于2020-04-23 14:07:39

    Ryan Lackey:

    Michelson在很多方面的设计,都有助于编写安全的智能合约,它是堆栈结构和强类型的。其设计是为了便于形式化验证,允许用户证明智能合约的属性。特别是,它们可通过SMT验证程序进行分析,并在Coq中进行形式化。还有两种经过形式化验证的Michelson实现,一种基于Coq,一种基于F*。

    Michelson可以成为构建安全DeFi协议的组成部分,它能够成为形式化验证合约和协议的重要工具,而且由于我们对其他平台所做的各种决策,我们排除了Tezos智能合约中的一系列漏洞,但这并不是一剂灵丹妙药。无论使用哪种平台,构建安全和健壮的DeFi应用仍然是一个挑战,但是Tezos和Michelson可以让它变得更容易。

    Ryan Lackey 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:59:24 嘉宾
    Michelson is designed in a lot of ways to facilitate writing secure smart contracts. It is stack based and strongly typed. It is designed to facilitate formal verification, allowing users to prove the properties of their smart contracts -- specifically, they can be analyzed by SMT solvers and formalized in Coq. There are also two formally verified implementations of Michelson, one in Coq and one in F*.

    Michelson can be a component of building secure DeFi protocols -- being able to formally verify contracts and protocols is an important tool, and a bunch of classes of vulnerabilities are excluded from Tezos smart contracts due to various decisions we’ve made vs. other platforms -- but it’s not a silver bullet. Building secure and robust DeFi applications today is still a challenge regardless of the platform, but Tezos and Michelson can make it easier.
  • gentledog 版主 发表于2020-04-20 23:37:02
    你对区块膨胀问题是怎么看的?区块链真的能够支撑商业应用吗?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Ryan Lackey 发表于2020-04-23 15:56:46

    Ryan Lackey:

    我认为,当今区块链面临的最大挑战,仍然是创建实际上有用和有益的应用。虽然可扩展性很重要,这在很大程度上是一个很好的问题——成功地获得了用户,因此需要扩展——而且我们已经有了很好的想法,如何将系统构建到可接受的可扩展级别(而且很多在比特币之后创建的系统已经具备了这一能力),我们可能不会拥有这样一个系统,在该系统中,交易期间世界上的每台计算机始终且同步地执行世界上的每笔交易,但是有很多选择可以在保持理想属性的情况下进行转移。

    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Kyle Samani 发表于2020-04-23 15:31:34

    Kyle Samani:

    像我们的投资组合Helium、Livepeer和Arweave在内的web3应用都是我们很看好的。Helium正在为数十亿物联网设备创建一个新的全球网络。该网络由Helium热点驱动,提供无线覆盖并生成Helium代币。在几分钟内,任何人都可以通过使用新的开放无线协议LongFi为低功耗物联网设备设置热点并提供连接。Arweave的使命是成为亚历山大的新图书馆,但不会落入中心化失败点的陷阱,确保人类共享的知识和历史为所有后代所用。Livepeer正在为那些希望向其项目中添加实时或点播视频功能的开发者创建一个可扩展的平台即服务。他们的目标是提高视频工作流程的可靠性,同时降低扩容成本。为了实现这一点,他们正在建立一个p2p基础设施,通过基于以太坊区块链的市场进行交互。

    Kyle Samani 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:56:27 嘉宾
    All the web3 applications like our portfolio Helium, Livepeer and Arweave is what we feel optimistic about.
    Helium is creating a new global network for billions of IoT devices. The network is powered by Helium Hotspots, which provide wireless coverage and generate Helium tokens. Within minutes, anyone can set up a Hotspot and provide connectivity for low power, IoT devices using LongFi, Helium’s new open wireless protocol.
    Arweave’s mission is to become the new Library of Alexandria, but invulnerable to the pitfalls of centralised points of failure, ensuring that humanity’s shared knowledge and history is available to all future generations.
    Livepeer is creating a scalable Platform-as-a-Service for developers who want to add live or on-demand video to their project. They aim to increase the reliability of video workflows while reducing the costs to scale them. To achieve this, they are building a p2p infrastructure that interacts through a marketplace secured by the Ethereum blockchain.
    Ryan Lackey 水手 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:22:56 嘉宾
    I think the biggest challenge for blockchains today is still in creating actually useful and beneficial end user applications. While scalability is important, it’s largely a good problem to have -- being successful at getting users and thus needing to scale -- and we have good ideas on how to build systems to acceptable levels of scalability already (and many systems created after Bitcoin already have this capability.) We probably will not have a system where every transaction in the world is always and synchronously executed by every computer in the world during the transaction, but there are many options to move away from that while still retaining desirable properties.
    洒脱喜 副船长 回复gentledog 发表于2020-04-23 13:07:24 嘉宾
    是关于区块链膨胀问题还是区块膨胀问题?如果是前者的话,上面提到的Utreexo可以用于比特币,以太坊则是无状态客户端研究套餐,或者coda那样通过零知识证明方案来解决,也可以用RSA累加器替代默克尔树,如果是区块膨胀问题,那就简单扩大区块。至于商业应用,很多数据不需要上链,放到layer 2就好了。
  • Helen_u50 副船长 发表于2020-04-21 09:33:07
    dYdX 宣布推出比特币永续合约,使用 USDC 计价,最高可达 10 倍杠杆.,想问Antonio,这么高杠杆是为了什么?最近DeFi风险问题频出,从业者是否应该思考下DeFi的初心,更加重视安全和风控,而不是一味冒进呢?
    AMA官方翻译小助手 船员 回复Antonio Juliano 发表于2020-04-23 14:16:10

    Antonio Juliano:

    所有DeFi平台的起步不同。也有一些DeFi平台是安全的。dYdX已经处理了超过15亿美元的交易,且没有任何问题。在代码审计过程中,多个顶尖的安全审计公司对dYdX的代码进行审查,都没有任何问题。

    我们对自己做的协议的经济和技术风险因素会进行全面的调查,我们认为10倍的比特币永续合约产品是安全的。和中心化交易所类似,dYdX的比特币永续合约也上了保险,且保额在不断提高,在最坏的情况下会有去杠杆的操作。

    Antonio Juliano 水手 回复Helen_u50 发表于2020-04-23 13:38:02 嘉宾
    All DeFi platforms are not created equal. There are secure DeFi platforms that exist right now. dYdX has transacted over $1.5 billion so far without any vulnerabilities. dYdX has never even had a security vulnerability discovered by auditors, despite being audited by multiple top security audit firms.
    We do extensive research into economic and technical risk factors of the protocols we build, and firmly believe offering 10x leverage on the BTC Perpetual product to be safe. Similar to centralized exchanges, the dYdX BTC Perpetual is also backed by an insurance fund which grows over time, as well as deleverages in the worst case.
    王佳健8btc 副船长 回复Helen_u50 发表于2020-04-21 10:23:14
    1倍有啥意思哦
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嘉宾介绍
洒脱喜

巴比特技术IP

巴比特技术IP,爱生活爱比特币的洒脱喜。
Antonio Juliano

dYdX创始人及CEO

dYdX的创始人&CEO
Mati Greenspan

Quantum Economics创始人&CEO

Quantum Economics的创始人及CEO
Ryan Lackey

Tezos基金会董事

Ryan是Tezos基金会董事,同时是Tezos基金会执行委员会首席技术官。
Kyle Samani

Multicoin Capital合伙人

Multicoin Capital合伙人
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